German Elections

Germany will be holding its federal elections on February 23, 2025, to elect members of the Bundestag, its national parliament. These elections will be the country’s fourth snap election since World War II and the first election since a new law reduced the number of Bundestag members from 733 to 630.

The political landscape has dramatically shifted since the last elections in 2021, when the Social Democrat Party (SPD) formed the government in coalition with two other left-of-centre parties: the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). This coalition collapsed in 2024 and the three parties will be running separately in this election cycle. Meanwhile, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is allied with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and held power for 16 years under Angela Merkel prior to 2021, is expecting a comeback. Finally, the far-right Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party is expected to gain ground in this election, despite challenges to its constitutionality and public backlash to its anti-immigrant rhetoric.

So, what are the key issues shaping this election?

Here’s what we’re watching

The Economy & Energy Crisis

The snap election was partially sparked by disagreement within the governing coalition over economic policies. The SPD and Green party pushed for more government spending, while the FDP demanded tax cuts by reducing social spending and slowing transition towards climate targets.

While most parties plan to keep financially supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia, the war has also contributed to economic challenges in Germany. Germany has seen rising electricity costs due to its decision to stop relying on Russian gas while phasing out nuclear power. As a result, electricity has become a key issue in this election, with the CDU and the AfD advocating for a return to nuclear power despite resistance from the German environmental movement. The SPD, in contrast, continues to call for more state intervention in the economy instead of shifting back to nuclear energy.

The Global Pluralism Monitor: Germany report highlights inequalities that exist between the West and East parts of Germany. Electricity is more expensive in the East than in the West, contributing to socioeconomic inequalities which can pose obstacles to building a cohesive society.

Immigration & Islamism

Recent violent attacks (including at a festival in August 2024 and in a park in January 2025) have pushed some voters to the right, as they call for tougher immigration security measures. The CDU is calling for faster asylum processes that result in deportations, including to countries like Afghanistan and Syria. The AfD also supports this move, advocating for leaving the EU, stricter border controls and cuts to social support for asylum seekers.

Notably, the Global Pluralism Monitor: Germany report found that anti-immigrant sentiment tends to be stronger in the East, where there are less migrants than in the West. This may have influenced the AfD rapidly gaining support in the East region since 2019. The SPD proposes a humanitarian approach to migration, including faster asylum decisions and family reunification processes. They have linked these approaches to immigrants’ potential to contribute to the German economy.

More than half of the 2 million refugees that have come to Germany since 2022 are Ukrainian. However, most political rhetoric against refugees focuses on those of non-European, Arab or Muslim background. The AfD, for example, links immigration to Islamism (the belief that Islamic law and values should play a central role in public and political life) and positions this as the greatest threat to Christian culture and liberal society.

The CDU and SPD also take a strong stance against Islamism. The CDU promises to close mosques that preach hate, while the SPD seeks to deprive Islamists of funding and places to organize. However, both parties also promise not to target Muslims who integrate into German society and will oppose discrimination towards Muslims.

The Global Pluralism Monitor: Germany report notes how Islamic faith is often problematized and deemed inferior across the country. Broad anti-Islamist measures risk fueling discrimination and exclusion of Muslims, which can feed into cycles of marginalization and conflict. When identities are threatened or vilified, social cohesion erodes, and pluralism suffers.

Listen to Global Pluralism Award honorable mention, Lea Baroudi, talk about how sectarian conflict occurs and what we can do to prevent it here.

What’s at stake for pluralism?

At the Global Centre for Pluralism, we have been exploring the link between pluralism and democracy. The Global Pluralism Monitor indicators like trust in institutions and shared ownership of society are central to democracy and have been in decline worldwide, including in Germany.

Polling data suggests that the CDU/CSU coalition will win the elections, but it also shows the AfD’s growing popularity. The AfD has officially been suspected of extremism by a German court. Its proposal for two-tier citizenship based on ethnicity is unconstitutional and could create more exclusion and polarization. All of this would negatively impact pluralism in Germany.

All parties have agreed to a brandmauer, or firewall, vowing to never work with any extremist party, including the AfD. However, the CDU broke that vow in January 2025 by accepting their support on a strict immigration bill. This sets a dangerous precedent, signaling a willingness to work with a party actively seeking to marginalize communities in Germany based on markers like ethnicity, furthering inequalities and driving mistrust. Since the brandmauer was broken, many have called for the AfD to be banned from the Bundestag entirely, citing the threat they represent to German democracy. However, AfD supporters argue that removing the AfD from parliament would be undemocratic for eroding freedom of expression. Hundreds of thousands of Germans have taken to the streets to protest the far right in early 2025.

The question remains: if the AfD is labeled extremist by the court and faces massive public protests, why is it still gaining support? This is a difficult question that we, at the Centre, grapple with. Across the world, we are witnessing the rise in popularity of right-wing parties alongside increasing tensions in society over immigration. Polling suggests that Canada and Australia might also see right-wing national governments elected in 2025. Debates over immigration are going to shape, and be shaped by, these elections.

Pluralism depends on working across differences. When political parties seek to erode democracy and divide societies, we must work together to ensure that our institutions, policies and communities remain resilient in the face of these threats that are ever present today.

By Andrea González and Carolyn McKee. Published February 20, 2025 and edited February 21, 2025 at 9:19am.