Bolivian Elections

On August 17, 2025, Bolivia’s first round of elections marked the beginning of a new political era. Although the votes were not decisive enough to elect a new president, the two candidates competing in the run-off election represent, for the first time in 20 years, an opportunity for center and right-wing governments to achieve power. The run-off election is scheduled for October 19, 2025, and is the first since the country’s return to democracy in 1982.

As incumbent president Luis Arce placed his vote on Sunday morning, he that the elections symbolized a new democratic transition for the country. But, in a first-round vote in which 19 per cent of the population – nearly 1.2 million people – decided to vote as ‘null-and-void’, and with 30 per cent claiming they remained undecided up until the day before the election, how can run-off candidates Rodrigo Paz and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga work to restore the trust of these voters?

As Bolivia still tends to the unhealed wounds of the 2019 political crisis, reflected in the schism that broke apart the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party, the findings from the Global Pluralism Monitor: Bolivia report help us understand the underlying social dynamics that shape the high levels of political polarization in the country. The current election process suggests these dynamics may worsen but can be avoided if candidates try to connect with those communities they see as the opposition.

It is no accident or coincidence that both candidates participating in the run-off election represent right-wing or center-right parties. Rather, it surfaces the level of dissatisfaction with the governing MAS party and the country’s left, inspired by economic crisis and shortages of essential goods such as gasoline, medicine and foods, since late 2024. While many in Bolivia revered the MAS party for their commitment to social change, former president Evo Morales’ name became synonymous with authoritarian tendencies. Though his policies lifted millions out of poverty, today, economic inequality is rampant across ethnic, regional and gender lines. Bolivia is not alone in this shift to the right, but rather, it points to both a global and regional trends of rightward shifts, where approaches that seek to address root causes to inequality have not worked fast enough to bring relief to those most impacted by it and have instead inspired voter frustration and skepticism.

Who is running?

Former President (2001-2002) Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, running under the Libre Alliance, and Senator Rodrigo Paz, representing the Partido Democrata Cristiano (PDC), are both committed to resolving the multidimensional economic crisis that plagues Bolivia.

Paz’s platform seeks to target Bolivia’s structural issues of corruption, insecurity, polarization and politicization of the justice system. In his Agenda 50/50, Paz proposes to review the criminal system and support families to enter the formal economy in what he calls, “capitalism for everybody.” On the other hand, Tuto Quiroga has been a firm critic of Bolivia’s left and aims to restore private property rights and expand free trade. Quiroga also proposes to decentralize the health sector to municipalities and departments, reduce government spending by cutting subsidies, and obtain the support of the IMF to get the country’s economy back on track.

What’s at stake for pluralism?

The MAS’s fall, although important in breaking the party’s political hegemony since the turn of the century, does not guarantee a strengthening of Bolivian democracy. As millions walked to the polls, inspired by Morales’s calls to cast a null-and-void vote in protest to him not being allowed to run, the null vote effectively ‘claimed’ third place in the elections – a signal that, whether they agreed with Morales or not, many citizens are dissatisfied with their democratic choices. Blank and spoiled votes have long been used in Latin American democracies as a tool of protest to express widespread discontent. Whether Paz or Quiroga emerge triumphant in the election, Bolivia’s next president will be tasked with restoring or even building trust with these null voters, many of whom are Indigenous peoples.

It is concerning, in this regard, that Indigenous Bolivians expressed feeling sceptical about the alternative candidates, noting that right-wing parties have not fully understood Indigenous identity in the country. More recently, Indigenous organizations have expressed concerns about proposals from both candidates that would see an end to communal land ownership – a hard-won right that honours Indigenous peoples’ relationship to the land and if repealed, could threaten Indigenous land rights in the country.

For pluralist democracies to work, we must be willing to talk to those who are different from us – in culture, language and views – and find solutions that benefit all. Although the MAS vote has, for many years, been synonymous with a vote for Indigenous peoples, it is crucial that the democratic backsliding associated with this party does not conflate the Indigenous movements with left-wing politics, corruption and anti-democracy itself, in order for pluralism to continue to flourish. One of the key legacies of the MAS party, as noted in the Monitor report, was the increased sense of belonging for Bolivians, especially for Indigenous peoples, in comparison to pre-2005 levels. This inclusion, however, was not extended to members of opposition political parties and the Monitor report notes that polarization likely sparked the erosion of this shared sense of pride in cultural belonging.

A pluralist democracy in Bolivia must therefore grapple with the question of how to ensure the country’s diverse population is represented in the state’s policies and practices. Achieving this goal requires a new government that is cautious not to mirror power dynamics that exclude dissenting voices and worsen polarization that is now synonymous with the MAS years.

By Andrea Gonzalez